Hi, I am Cheryl Broom, CEO of GradComm and host of Higher Ed Conversations, and I am with you with this month's quick take podcast where I take a deep dive into one issue, and this month I wanna talk about higher education's math problem. So yeah, I think higher ed as a whole, not just community colleges, but all of higher education has a math problem.
And that problem has to do with demographic shifts, changing student populations and declining. Trust in higher education as an institution, and why is it a math problem? Because all three of those things are being impacted by declining numbers. So we're seeing declines in demographics overall student population declines in high school students.
Just the number of 'em, the sheer number of high school students, and a substantial decline in public trust in what higher education is offering. And I know most of the people that are listening to the podcast are leaders in higher education or marketing personnel. And this is extremely important for you to get your arms around because this these changes that are happening in higher education and have been happening for quite a long time are gonna impact the way, not only we talk about higher ed and market it, but also the way that we approach higher ed as a whole.
I have an entire keynote that I've developed that I'm starting to go on the road with that addresses the ways that we must change higher education as a product and as an experience if we're going to expect it to thrive and grow in the upcoming decades. So if you work at a college or work for.
An organization that has speakers reach out and let me know because I've developed a really great keynote that touches on these themes in actually a really fun and energetic way. So I don't wanna leave people too depressed, but let's dive into some of, the recent statistics and some of the recent data around changing student demographics.
There obviously you've probably heard of the enrollment cliff. Last year, 2025 was our largest. Graduating class of high school seniors before the quote unquote cliff. And I don't think it's a cliff. It's not like all of a sudden, you know, we've spike, spike, spike, we've climbed, climb, climb. Now we're gonna dive off the cliff like thumb and Louise, we're just driving off and hitting the bottom.
It's actually not a cliff. It's a slow, steady to climb. Why is this? Well. Because people weren't making babies in the two thousands. And because of that, we just don't have as many high school graduates coming up over the next 10 years. So some of you listening to this podcast might be responsible for that.
Fewer babies born in the two thousands means fewer high school graduates right now. But importantly to consider is that the number of colleges hasn't declined at the same rate. So we're heading into a period with fewer students, but roughly the same amount of colleges. So that's more competition, more ways that your college needs to make sure that they are top of mind for students out there.
That was the peak 2025. So I like to ask, I have a a trivia game that I play in these presentations, and I like to ask when the peak was, and the peak was 2025. So if you've listened to this podcast and you attend a presentation, you might be in line to win a Starbucks gift card during my Kahoot game, because that is the answer to one of my quiz questions.
So that doesn't mean that all is lost. You've got a smaller high school population that's gonna steadily decline until like 2041. Get smaller and smaller each year, but there's other populations that you can market to and you can outreach to. And a lot of colleges have already been doing this. In fact, it's one of our, our biggest requests for marketing is marketing to adult learners.
So adult learners are a great population for you to reach out to because there's more than 40 million Americans between the ages of 25 and 64. Who have some college, so they've taken at least one class, but they don't have a degree or certificate. And that's why a lot of colleges have been shifting their attention to adult learners because they help fill enrollment pipelines.
But what's important to note about this demographic is they require a different approach. Adult learners care more about things like flexible schedules, career outcomes, and short term credentials and affordability. So if you're in an area that has a lot of adult learners that you could potentially reach, you need to be making campaigns that are specific just to them because they don't care as much about campus culture and dorms and you know, meeting new friends.
They want to know if their degree and credential is flexible, if it's gonna fit their schedule, and if it's gonna have an outcome that's worth their investment. So all of these demographic changes are going on. We have a declining high school population, and we have a, an increasing opportunity to get students age 25 to 64 back in the classroom for re-skilling, for up-skilling, for new skills for any of it.
And all of this is going on, and at the same time, there's one more quote unquote math problem that's happening, and that is a decline in people who have confidence in higher education as a whole. The most recent Gallup poll found that 42% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of co, quite a lot of confidence in higher education.
So that means that 58%. Do not have confidence, do not have a great deal, or who are neutral. So that's like half of you listening to this podcast right now, basically do not have confidence that higher education is providing a great service or opportunity for the American public. Interestingly, when Gallup first measured this back in 2015, so a little over 10 years ago, 57% said they had quite a lot of confidence or a great deal of confidence in higher education.
So that's a 15% decline.
Meanwhile, 70% of Americans think that higher education is moving in the wrong direction. Pew Research did find in their surveying, 70% of Americans thinking that higher ed is heading in the wrong direction. The most common concerns people cite cost and student debt, unclear career outcomes, and political or ideological challenges.
So the challenge for higher education is going beyond fewer students. Many people are questioning the value of college itself. And I think this is really important for us marketers and us higher education leaders to know, because when we're out there talking about higher education, we are talking to a population of people that thinks that we're heading in the wrong direction, and the majority frankly don't even trust us.
So we have a lot of rebuilding to do and public confidence and public trust, and our messaging has to go beyond. Being affordable. Our messaging has to go beyond, you know, come here for your future. We have to start focusing on outcomes, and we have to start treating higher education as a full product. As something people experience from the first time they have an interaction with you to the phone call they make, to walking across your campus, to interacting with your counselors, to having great classes with your faculty.
Every single touchpoint is a milestone in your customer's journey, and it's no longer enough for us to say you're gonna get a degree and your life is gonna be great. Because people don't believe it anymore. So higher ed has got to pay attention to the entire student journey, the entire student experience, and make it something really special and start modeling themselves after businesses that have optimized the product experience.
Like think of, think of Apple you know, think of Uber, think of Netflix, think of Amazon companies that we interact with every day that anticipate what we need and then make sure that we get it without us even. And knowing that we needed it in the first place. And I think those are some of the changes that I would love to see higher education make in the future.
So yes, higher education has a math problem. We're seeing less students, the same number of colleges. We're seeing increased competition to hone in on the adult learners. And we're seeing a decline in trust and confidence from the American public. All things to consider when you're putting together your next marketing campaign or when you're out there talking about what makes your college special and unique.
I hope this gave you some things to think about, and please tune in for our full episode every month where we bring on great guests from across higher education and Ed Tech Connect. Until next time, bye.